So the craziness that is finals just got over. Thus the delay in posts. Carol probably would have posted, but I have been monopolizing the computer. For some reason my professors want me to turn in work (I feel like I have been writing for weeks), and my students want grades. Go fig. Anyway, I am now officially finished with this semester. Three weeks off and then back to it. I am taking two classes over the summer, working on research, and teaching Stats again. And speaking of stats, I just recently restumbled upon this little gem. It is known as the Monty Hall problem. Now, I specifically know that some have already heard this and will no the answer already. For those of you who haven't heard it here is how it goes.
You or your friend (doesn't really matter just a different version) are playing a game show in some third world country, that really likes goats and cars. The host's name is Monty Hall. You are in the final round and the host reveals three doors. Behind one of those doors is a new car. Behind the other two are goats (actually this is really similar to the game show Deal or No Deal). You pick a door. We will say door A. Monty Hall then randomly opens one of the unpicked doors, we will say door C, revealing a goat. Monty Hall then turns to you and asks, "Would you like to switch doors to door B?" So that is the Monty Hall problem, do you switch doors from A to B or stay with A? I will give the answer in a day or two. In the mean time I look forward to hearing your guesses, and tell me why.
-Josh
6 comments:
Well, I'd say it doesn't matter which door I picked because I need a goat to keep my lawn trimmed. Then if it got on my nerves, hey, food storage! - Cheryl
I know the answer so I am not going to give it away. However I am going to say that you have left some information out of the equation. Does the host always open a door with a goat first? Does he always offer the player the chance to switch? If you assume that the host is always consistent in how he plays the game there is a mathmatical solution. But if you don't mind goat meat then your a winner either way.
I also know the answer, so I won't reveal it. I just want to clarify that the host doesn't just randomly open one of the two doors that you didn't pick. He always opens one with a goat (he knows which door to pick to avoid the real prize).
I vote you stick with the original door you picked to begin with...don't ask me why, I don't know. I'm sure there is some mathmatical equation about the number of people who switch doors when offered the change, and there for the game show has some equation about why they put the car behind the original door, etc. etc. :)
I know I've heard this before, but I can't remember the answer 100%. Still I'd take the goat because my children could ride the goat to school, and then at lunch there would be fresh milk.
Didn't read the answer so I will say that you switch your choice. You have better odds.
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